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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-02-20T00:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-02-20T00:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37417/-1
CME Note: Wide CME seen primarily to the west in SOHO C2 and C3 imagery associated with a bright C8-class flare and eruption from around AR 13991 (S12W34) as seen in SDO/AIA 304 and SDO/AIA 131 starting around 2025-02-19T23:33Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-23T12:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-02-20T05:14Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 438
Longitude (deg): W017
Latitude (deg): S19
Half-angular width (deg): 25

Notes: 
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 46.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-02-21T14:00Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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